Fibonacci Analysis

[fxroom24]

Fibonacci Analysis discussion goes here ...

[fxaprendiz]

Welcome to the Fibonacci Analysis room!

I hope many other great contributors start posting their charts soon, the more the merrier. Sterlingbull/Valente is already with us, I'm sure we'll see some of his work soon in this forum.

I'd like to open the exchange of ideas with my favorite pair, the USD/CHF
This is a repost of my latest entry in my blog, I hope you don't mind me doing that, since it saves me work
Please feel free to ask questions, and I'll try to answers them when online.

"OK, this is the first of a small series of charts where I try to explain my long term bullish stance in the USD/CHF.

I'll start with the monthly timeframe.

There is a pattern that spans from May 1995 to April 2008. A period of practically 13 years is huge in the Forex markets, so this figure reserves some careful consideration.

Now, as much as I'd like to call it a butterfly, I just can't do it. Too many guidelines broken, but the crossed line in the sand for me was the double bottom in January 2005: What should be a retracement of maximum 0.886 is almost 100%.

However, looking at the inverse correlated pair, EUR/USD (chart will be posted later in the week) we see that actually there is a bearish butterfly in the monthly TM. This is an irony since I like the swissie better because it gives more solid fractals than the eurodollar. So I guess this time around it was the EUR/USD who came to the rescue.

Then, considering that the Euro has a bearish butterfly we would'nt be far off the target to take the swissie "quasi" fractal as a possible bull signal.

Another thing that adds to the argument of an eventual strong dollar is the low of 2008 is below parity. I don't have a charting software going back in time farther, but I would venture to say that is a really low point for this pair if not the lowest.

The other arguments are fundamental ones, but that's not my forte, so I'll leave it to the experts in the matter to delve on that...

More charts during the week "

[Asher]

I'd like to open the exchange of ideas with my favorite pair, the USD/CHF
This is a repost of my latest entry in my blog, I hope you don't mind me doing that, since it saves me work
Please feel free to ask questions, and I'll try to answers them when online.

Thats a really good one and I'm exactly of the same opinion on USDCHF

[fxaprendiz]

Thats a really good one and I'm exactly of the same opinion on USDCHF

Thanks Boss, your encouragement is greatly appreciated here

We'll continue with the longer term charts, but today I'm posting the newest "small" fractal for the swissie.

Again, it's a repost from my blog, I hope nobody minds the flagrant auto-promotion
Next time I'll just repost without mention its origin, hehe.

"There is a bullish crab in the hourly chart USD/CHF pair since Friday.

I drew it only for my records, since I consider the RR Ratio at current price doesn’t justify a trade.

However, we can still take advantage of it in the form of analysis. Since the trend is still down, I don’t expect a big retracement out of this fractal. In fact, I think it will hardly make price to rebound to an area between 0.382 and 0.5 (see green lines). I expect this to happen in 1-2 more days, and when the USD/CHF rolls over, my best guess is that it will head for 1.047ish by the end of the week/start of next one.

This analysis is not a trade recommendation, especially for medium and long term traders. Better to wait and see how things develop in the next couple days, since the USD might simply drop to the 1.047 level from here."

P.S. Sorry, too much color in the chart: I forgot to change the candlesticks bars into regular ones

RE. P.S. I'll post a link to this entry in the USD/CHF room.

[fxaprendiz]

There is a butterfly in the 30min TM of EUR/USD. It is a long signal. As often these days, I didn't get to see it on time (limited internet access ) but fortunately for the guys in this forum, Discohero posted a chart of the same fractal hours ago in the EURO room:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2&start=240#p587

So, free of the pressure to give the news out, I'm posting it in my favorite room

eurusd-30min-bullbuttvariation000.png

It is a variation of a butterfly, with the 1.382XA extension instead of the usual 1.272 (I hope not many got their SL tripped because of that).

Even though is a small pattern and the descending slope was scary, this fractal may cause a good sized retracement. Adding to the euro bullish case there is a bigger, bearish fractal in the dollar/swissie.
I'll post the chart for that pair in about an hour.

[fxaprendiz]

This is the combo fractal I mentioned earlier. While the right wing is the same for both fractals, there are two X points from which we can draw 2 different but complementary patterns: a butterfly and a deep crab. To make things easier to the eye I didn't placed the Fibo ratios on them, but I'll be drawing 2 more charts this afternoon to separate and tag properly both fractals for my records. I'll will post them for sure in my blogsite. I might just post a link to them here if my explanation there is too long, as usual. hehe.

[fxaprendiz]

OK, I'm posting the 2 fractals that make up the strange creature posted in last entry.

I especially like the deep crab, but that's just an aesthetic feel. Whether they will be validated (reaching 0.382 ret) is another matter altogether

usdchf-1h-buttdeepcrabhybrid001.png

usdchf-1h-buttdeepcrabhybrid002.png

[Valente]

Hope these charts help

Dailys and Weeklys

[Valente]

and these 2 I took screenshots of earlier, wasn't sure if they would validate, i guess they are ..

1hr and 4hrs, I hope they help

[Valente]

Dollar Swiss Weekly pattern, I posted some other Dollar swiss patterns, cant remember where now (UsdChf room probably)

Should I carry on posting these patterns here when I find them or in their designated room????